Why haven't you posted anything here, Jerome?

I haven't added a new article here in years, and I know my tons of adoring fans are beside themselves [laughs to himself]. Anyway, that's because I was lucky enough to be a contributor at numberFire (which I believe is being renamed FanDuel Research) for the previous three NFL seasons.

It was a great experience I was able to learn a lot about writing on and communicating quantitative ideas in sports. This year they trimmed down their contributors and got rid of most (if not all) of the seasonal writers. It worked out for me personally. I just moved into a new house, have a 2-year-old, and a new puppy, so I've been kept busy.

Anyway, I wanted to at least document some of the articles I've written, and thanks to the Wayback Machine you can what I wrote about, with one of the pieces getting saved. See below:

Whole Article: Monday Night Betting - Week 13 of the 2022 Season

Lists of Articles (that aren't saved):

Most of my 2022 Articles (Monday Night Betting)
Last 12 of my 2021 Articles (Monday Night Betting)
Last 12 of my 2020 Articles (NFL Power Rankings)

Hitting the NBA Jackpot

Lotteries are typically really tough to win. Powerball, Mega Millions, and even state lotteries are all damn near impossible claim the jackpot. Even winning anything is pretty unlikely. Getting a Pick 5 (numbers 0-9) exactly right is 1 in 100,000. Getting luck enough to draft the next phenom like LeBron, Anthony Davis, or perhaps Zion Williamson? That's much, much easier than getting a few digits in the right order. NBA Draft System and Protected Picks A quick refresher: The NBA determines the selection order of the first 14 (of 30) teams for an upcoming draft of new players by a lottery system. These are teams that didn't make the playoffs. The rest of the draft order is determined by inverse order of regular season record. The NHL also has a lottery system for non-playoff teams but differs for teams in the post season where order is determined partially by playoff performance and regular season point total. In the NFL, non-playoff teams are ordered purely by regular sea...

NCAA Bracket Help is Here (2019)

Last call for brackets! It's the last few hours and I am here to help. Even if the deadline passes use this to try and find any potential upsets. I used three classification models to predict each the winner of any match-up for the 2019 Men's basketball tournament. You can pick whichever model seems the best to you, or use the three in a voting scheme where majority picks the winner! To learn more about the model types (if you're interested) I used: logistic regression - neural network - random forest Use the search bar to and type in both school names you are looking for, and the probabilities next to each model are the likelihood that predictor gives to School X winning the match-up. If you're having trouble with the table on this site, click here to open the table in a new window. As always, feel free to reach out with any feedback via email ( math.w.jerome@gmail.com ) or through twitter! Tweet to @MathWithJerome Follow @MathWit...

First Post! What to expect from fantasy football starters (ideally, at least)?

Let's get into what I'm going to call starter-worthy production. If you're in a 12-team league, with the typical two RB slots to fill, then the top 24 running backs are typically deemed "starters." To get a sense of how things may go for you this week, you visit your favorite rankings site to check out where your guys fall in the top 20 to 30 players at the position. But what point production should you feel good about from those players? Can we find a point threshold that helps identify production worthy of being in your starting lineup? Let's take a look... I'm defining starter-worthy production for each week as the top 24 scores for RB and WR, and the top 12 scores for QB and TE. The dataset consists of the top scores for each week including 50 for RB/WR, 18 for QB, and 20 for TE. The splits were needed for simplicity and don’t change the analysis. Looking at the visualization below, the blue histogram shows what starter-worthy produ...

Math With Jerome

Search This Blog